New observations from the James Webb Space Telescope have enabled scientists to refine the trajectory of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, confirming that it will not collide with the Moon in 2032.
According to updated data collected on February 18 and 26, experts at the NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, which operates from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, have recalculated the asteroid’s orbit and ruled out a previously estimated possibility of a lunar impact on December 22, 2032. The revised calculations indicate that the asteroid will instead pass the Moon at a distance of about 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers).
Scientists noted that the latest update reflects greater accuracy in predicting the asteroid’s position rather than any actual change in its orbital path. Earlier assessments, made before the latest observations were incorporated, had suggested there was a 4.3% chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon on that date.
The new observations were carried out by a team led by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, which used Webb’s advanced capabilities to capture two extremely faint images of the asteroid. Since the spring of 2025, 2024 YR4 has remained largely unobservable from Earth and most space-based telescopes, making Webb’s detection among the faintest asteroid observations ever recorded.
The asteroid was first identified in late 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System monitoring station in Chile, a NASA-funded project that scans the skies for potentially hazardous objects. Early trajectory estimates in 2025 suggested the asteroid carried a small but noteworthy chance of colliding with Earth. However, continued observations by astronomers worldwide allowed researchers to refine their models, ultimately determining that the asteroid poses no meaningful threat to Earth on December 22, 2032, or at any point over the next century.
Researchers emphasised that such revisions are common in planetary defense monitoring, as initial calculations are routinely updated once additional observational data becomes available and orbital models are improved.
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